Summary: 2024 potential disruptors for business travel
Geopolitical risks
The Israel-Gaza conflict radically altered the political and economic status quo in the Middle East – and the repercussions are likely to persist for a long while. Arab states bordering Israel, including Egypt and Jordan, are concerned the influx of refugees from Gaza will impact security in their own countries. There are already 2.3 million Palestinian refugees in Jordan; more arrivals mean further strain on resources and infrastructure. The conflict aftershocks have spread to countries far outside the Middle East and North Africa. Many western countries already increased security around sensitive locations.
Events in the Middle East have diverted attention from other crises around the world
The conflict in Ukraine has faded from the media, but the situation there is as serious as it ever was. A strategic impasse persists, with Russia and Ukraine seemingly at a stalemate, militarily and diplomatically. As we enter winter, there won’t likely be significant changes over the next three to six months.
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The outcome of U.S. presidential elections could affect Ukraine support
National elections are scheduled in a number of countries in 2024, but the U.S. elections will be critical across the world. All eyes will be on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and what it means for its resolve to support Ukraine. A presidential change could change U.S. policy.
Geopolitical polarization
Asia Pacific will remain polarized as the region’s nations move into more clearly defined opposing camps built around China and the U.S. Domestic factors in these two countries will be key in defining the composition and aspirations of these groups. The U.S. presidential elections are ahead, and China must contend with a sluggish post-pandemic recovery. An anti-western bloc comprising China, Russia and North Korea has emerged in East Asia. This will prompt tighter security co-operation among U.S.-aligned countries, including Japan and South Korea. Supply chain diversification and changes to security laws will increasingly impact international business and travelers. Taiwan can’t be ignored. While an actual conflict seems unlikely in the medium term, it’s impossible to rule out belligerent moves by the Chinese military timed around sensitive events, such as Taiwan’s presidential elections. Disputed territory in the South China Sea is another potential flashpoint. Chinese expansion should continue. Other claimant countries may try to assert their own territorial claims, through actions including freedom of navigation exercises. While such moves increase the chances of an inadvertent escalation, any resulting disruption and panic should be limited, as politicians will want to contain any fallout.
Advances in technology
Technology, and artificial intelligence (AI) in particular, has made substantial progress over the last 12-18 months. AI offers some real benefits, especially for air travel. By combining with biometrics, AI can help to reduce some of the friction travelers face, by helping to reduce check-in and security processing times. While technology clearly offers a lot of benefits, it also brings its own challenges. AI enables malicious actors to spread misinformation more effectively, targeting it at those most susceptible to it. It can facilitate more evasive ransomware, more convincing deep fake email attacks, and state sponsored attacks, impacting the provision of utilities and public transportation. This threat can only rise. But AI is not just the cause but also the solution to these problems. It can be used to detect fake news, defend against it and inform more quickly. It can also predict cyber security threats and develop responses to them, often before they occur.
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